Is 2026 a Good Time to Buy in Orange County? Honest Market Perspective

Rates are still above 6%, prices keep climbing, and buyers are wondering whether to wait. Here's an honest, data-driven answer to the most common question I hear.

By Shasta Greene · April 8, 2026 · 7 min read

Every week, I talk to buyers asking some version of this question: 'Should we wait?' It's one of the most important decisions of your financial life, and it deserves an honest answer — not a sales pitch.

The Price Reality: OC Is Expensive, and Staying Expensive

Orange County's median home price crossed $1M in early 2026. This is not a temporary spike — it reflects a structural imbalance between demand (OC is one of the best places to live in the country) and supply (limited buildable land, slow permitting, NIMBYism). Prices have appreciated 6%–9% annually in most OC markets over the past decade.

The Rate Reality: Painful but Manageable

30-year fixed rates around 6.8%–7.2% feel high compared to the 2%–3% rates of 2021. But the historical average for the 30-year fixed is 7.74% since 1971. Today's rates are painful relative to recent history, but not historically unusual.

The Opportunity Cost of Waiting

Every year a buyer waits in OC, prices typically appreciate $50K–$80K on a $800K home. If rates don't drop (or if dropping rates re-ignite demand and push prices higher), waiting can be more expensive than acting.

The Bottom Line

The 'right time' to buy is when: you can afford the payment, you have a stable income and emergency reserves, you plan to stay 5+ years, and you've found a home that genuinely meets your needs. Market timing is less important than these fundamentals.

Shasta Greene is an Orange County, California real estate advisor and REALTOR®, DRE #02174153.